The global business travel industry is walking into 2026 with a mood that feels very different from the rebound years we saw right after the pandemic. A new outlook report from BCD Travel suggests the main themes for the coming year are going to be restraint, paying attention to risk, and relentlessly optimizing data. All of this is happening while global economic growth slows down to a crawl.
A Subdued Economic Backdrop
Economic conditions are looking a bit subdued. Oxford Economics expects global GDP growth to hit just 2.6 percent in 2026. Aside from the pandemic crash in 2020, that is the slowest pace we have seen since the global financial crisis. Inflation isn’t dropping fast either; it will ease down gradually from 3.4 percent in 2025 to just over 3 percent the next year. In this fragile environment, everyone is watching travel budgets closely, even though most industries still see face-to-face meetings as essential for business.
Where the Money Will Move: 2026 Price Forecast
|
Category |
Global Average Increase |
Hot Spots |
|
Hotel rates |
4.90% |
Middle East +8 %, Latin America +6.4 % |
|
Airfares |
1.10% |
Africa +2.5 %, Asia +2.0 % |
|
Rental cars & ground transport |
+2–4 % |
Driven by repair costs & surcharges |
After years where buyers had the upper hand, pricing power is shifting back to hotels, especially in high-growth areas. Airlines are keeping ticket prices technically low, largely thanks to the North American market, but they are making up for it with aggressive distribution strategies and rising fuel surcharges. Travel managers are already reacting by encouraging more ride-hailing options where they make more sense than traditional rental cars.
Mega-Risks That Will Define 2026
There are six major risks that will define the year. BCD and Advito highlight systemic issues that need proactive management rather than just a reaction when things go wrong. These include extreme weather, geopolitical conflicts, sudden changes in visa rules, cyberattacks involving AI misinformation, health outbreaks, and capacity shortages during big events. The report warns that 2026 will separate the proactive programs from the reactive ones. Waiting for a crisis to hit is going to be expensive.
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Airlines Rewrite the Rules — Data Is the Only Countermeasure
Airlines are also rewriting the rules. This looks like the year they fully pivot from traditional corporate deals to dynamic pricing they control. The headaches here include smaller discounts, surcharges for distribution, and travelers booking outside of policy. The only real countermeasure is data. Real-time tracking and automated detection of leakage are not just nice features anymore; they are necessary to protect your negotiating power.
Sustainability: From Virtue Signaling to Hard Accountability
Sustainability is shifting from vague promises to hard accountability. Right now, the industry maturity on this is low, scoring just 1.4 out of 5 according to benchmarks. Very few companies are charging internal carbon fees or investing in sustainable aviation fuel. But in 2026, regulators and investors are going to want to see proof of progress rather than just good intentions. Credible reporting and actual investment in decarbonization will become what separates the leaders in business travel from the rest.
The New Normal
In this new normal of slow growth and rising risks, the winners in business travel will be the ones who treat it as a strategic function rather than just an administrative cost. It is all about managing the volatility. If there is one absolute for 2026, it is that we can only be certain about uncertainty. The programs that actually thrive will be the ones relying on real-time intelligence, solid risk frameworks, and the agility to turn a threat into a negotiated win.
For travel managers, the message is simple. Tighten things up, get sharper with your data, and stay ahead of the trouble. 2026 is not going to wait around for anyone who isn’t ready to move.