A recent survey from the AKTOB shows that Turkish tourism professionals are feeling cautiously optimistic about 2026. While everyone is expecting more guests, particularly from Europe and Russia, the reality of high operating costs and inflation is keeping expectations grounded.
2025 Performance and Outlook for 2026
Looking back at 2025, the vibe is mixed but generally positive. About 56% of the industry saw or expects to see activity pick up compared to 2024. Within that group, roughly a third reported growth between 5% and 19%. On the flip side, 28% stayed flat, and 18% actually saw a dip.
For 2026, the mood lifts a bit. 62% of the sector thinks tourist numbers will beat 2025 figures. Most are betting on a steady 5 to 10% bump. Only a tiny fraction, about 7%, is bracing for a decline, while 31% expect things to hold steady.
Europe Leads Expected Source-Market Growth
Europe is still the main driver for growth next year. Half of the respondents see an uptick coming from European visitors, with most predicting a moderate 5 to 10% rise. The Russian and CIS markets aren’t far behind, as nearly half the professionals expect growth there too, while 44% think numbers will stay about the same. It is worth noting that very few people foresee a drop in these markets.
Interestingly, the local Turkish market looks strong, with exactly half of the respondents counting on more domestic travelers. When you rank where the growth is coming from, it goes Europe first, followed by Russia and CIS, the domestic market, the Middle East, and then Asia.
Pricing Strategy: Flexibility First
When it comes to pricing, flexibility is the priority for 2026. Most operators are leaning into flexible models or value-oriented premium pricing to juggle those rising costs without losing their competitive edge against other destinations.
Early Bookings and Digital Channels Gain Momentum
Early bookings look promising, too. Almost half the industry predicts an increase of 5 to 20% or more. Online sales are poised for a massive jump, with 81% of the sector expecting growth in digital channels.
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High Costs and Inflation Top the Risk List of Turkish Tourism
Here is the difficult part, though. Even with more guests arriving, running the business is getting tougher. For 2025, 58% pointed to high costs as the single biggest headache. Looking at 2026, high inflation takes the top spot on the risk list, followed by price wars with rival destinations and the struggle to find qualified staff. Other worries popping up include geopolitical tensions and the impact of short-term rentals.
Sector’s Wish List: Lower Taxes and Year-Round Promotion
So, what does the industry need to cope with? About 21% are asking for tax relief to lighten the load. They are also looking for help opening new markets and improving structural standards.
The biggest request for the Ministry of Culture and Tourism is pretty clear: stop focusing just on the peak season. 56% want promotion efforts to span the full 12 months. They told the Turkish Tourism Promotion and Development Agency (TGA) the same thing, with many asking for continuous campaigns and sharper, market-specific strategies.
A Resilient but Pressured Industry
Overall, the survey portrays a resilient Turkish tourism sector that has mostly regained its pre-pandemic confidence. They are ready for moderate growth in 2026, thanks to loyal markets in Europe and Russia. But between soaring costs, stubborn inflation, and stiff competition, maintaining profitability remains a high-pressure challenge. Without significant cost relief and structural reforms, the pressure just isn’t going to lift. Turkey is obviously a powerhouse in tourism and looks set for another year of growth, but that depends on one big thing. Policymakers need to actually listen to the industry’s loudest concerns and fix them before the 2026 season begins.